When Central Banks Surprise: Why It Is Important and What Policy Makers Need to Do about It
Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos and Samantha St. Amand
The period of unprecedented macroeconomic policy in the United States and the euro zone is entering a new phase. The global financial crisis sparked an aggressive, and highly experimental, period in US monetary policy that saw the federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound, where it still remains, while the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded by over US$3.5 trillion. Several other central banks have followed in the Fed’s footsteps and more are waiting in the wings, if deemed necessary. The end of these policies is now in sight. The Fed has already ceased outright asset purchases, effectively stabilizing its balance sheet. More recently, the Federal Open Markets Committee — the Fed’s monetary policy committee — has changed its forward guidanc. Drawing on CIGI-sponsored research, this policy brief discusses the potential effects of unexpected US news events on global capital flows. It then identifies the countries that are most vulnerable to global financial volatility and discusses the role of the Group of Twenty in facilitating a stronger and more resilient global economy.